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Fire Crux HybridTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals (ONLINE)
decks
4
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
5-9-1
overall winrate
36.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1323
· range 1214–1432
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1273
Q3 1433
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 41.6% | -6.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Beast | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
